A Look Back at the First Half of 2026: What Defined a «Good» Performance?
As every year, Zwei Wealth analysed the performance of asset managers' portfolios. The first half of 2026 presented a challenging environment: despite geopolitical uncertainty, volatile energy prices and shifting interest rate expectations, financial markets delivered positive returns. Performance, however, varied significantly across regions, asset classes and investment styles.
The disparity between strong and weak asset managers remained very wide in the first half of 2026. This underscores the need to compare results regularly and to consider not only absolute returns but also risk, currency conversion, style positioning, and costs. Particularly in a market environment characterised by rapid market rotations, it was difficult for retail clients to assess whether active decisions actually created added value.
With over 550 banks and asset managers now on our platform, we have a comprehensive view of what can reasonably be considered a fair result. Overall, the first half of 2026 was characterized by resilient stock markets, increased market breadth, and the continued dominance of AI-driven investments.
Strong but Volatile Stock Markets
The first half of 2026 was positive for equity investors despite occasional setbacks. U.S. stocks posted high single-digit to low double-digit returns by the end of June. From a global perspective, market breadth increased: emerging markets and cyclical industrial and infrastructure themes were among the winners. Swiss stocks performed more solidly but less dynamically than the strongest international markets, making CHF portfolios more dependent on stock selection and currency management.
Wide Variation Across All Risk Profiles
Pure equity mandates benefited most from the market recovery following the weak first quarter, but at the same time exhibited the widest range of performance. Balanced portfolios were able to benefit from rising equity markets and more attractive bond yields, provided that duration, credit quality, and currency risks were actively managed. Very conservative mandates delivered more stable but still comparatively low returns; here, stock selection was the primary factor determining the difference between average and strong performance.
For portfolios measured in CHF, the median return for global equity portfolios was just under +10%, though with a very wide range from +30% to -15%. For balanced portfolios, the median was +5%, with a range of +8% to -1.5%.
Style Continues to Make the Difference
In the first half of 2026, different investment styles once again delivered very different results. Momentum strategies benefited from persistently strong trends in technology sectors, while pro-cyclical value strategies gained significantly in value due to the surprisingly high earnings growth of many companies. Defensive quality and dividend strategies provided stability but often lagged behind growth and cyclical approaches.
Active Management with Selective Added Value
The first half of 2026 presented a more nuanced picture than in years with very narrow market breadth. Passive global equity portfolios benefited significantly from the general upward trend, but active managers were able to generate added value where rotation, sector diversification, and regional differences were pronounced—particularly in fixed income, Swiss small- and mid-caps, selected emerging markets, and portfolios with deliberate currency management. However, manager selection remained crucial.
A Wealth Office Pays Off
Clients who receive professional support with analysis, comparison, and negotiation are often better positioned to achieve stronger long-term outcomes. The first half of 2026 in particular demonstrated that the combination of performance comparison, cost control, currency analysis, and critical manager selection can make a measurable difference.
Learn how a modern wealth office is structured and what advantages this approach offers to discerning investors.
